When Olympique Lyon host Toulouse FC at Parc Olympique Lyonnais on Sunday, October 5, 2025, the buzz around the Lyon vs Toulouse prediction is unmistakable: the hosts are heavy favourites. Under Paulo Fonseca, Lyon sit second in Ligue 1 France, having lost only once all season. Their opponent, coached by Carles Martinez, have scraped together a solitary point from their last four league outings.

Why Lyon’s Momentum Matters

Lyon’s resurgence began after a 1‑3 defeat at Rennes in round four. Since that hiccup, the Lions have rattled off four straight victories – two in the domestic league and two in the Europa League. The most recent Ligue 1 win came against fierce rivals Lille at Stade Pierre‑Mauroy, where Tyler Morton struck in the 13th minute to clinch a 1‑0 triumph. Lyon commanded 46 % possession, fired two shots on target and, crucially, kept a clean sheet.

Just days before the Lyon‑Toulouse clash, Fonseca’s side humbled Red Bull Salzburg 2‑0 at home, boasting a 2.42 xG and 65 % possession. That performance reinforced Lyon’s defensive solidity – three goals conceded in six games, with a shut‑out streak extending over their last four matches.

Team News and Injury Updates

On the home side, Abner Vinícius is listed as doubtful after a knock in training, while Ernest Nuamah, Orel Mangala and Remy Descamps remain sidelined.

Toulouse will rely on the return of Yann Gboho, who netted as a substitute in their 2‑2 draw with Nantes. The Violets have endured four league games without a clean sheet and occupy a mid‑table spot that barely reflects their recent form.

Head‑to‑Head History and Betting Angles

Statistically, the scales tilt heavily toward Lyon. The Lions are unbeaten in their last 18 meetings with Toulouse – a streak dating back to 2015. The only Violets’ win came in 2014, and the two sides have shared 22 draws, the most recent being a goalless stalemate.

Recent odds echo that sentiment: a straight win for Lyon sits at -120, while many tip‑off books list 2‑1 as the most probable correct score. Over 2.5 goals is also a strong favourite, given that eight of the last ten encounters have produced at least three goals.

Individual betting markets highlight Malick Fofana as a potential scorer at 175 odds, while Charlie Cresswell is eyed for a booking at 150.

What the Numbers Say

• Lyon’s average shots on target this season: 4.3 per game.
• Toulouse’s average shots on target: 2.1 per game.
• Combined expected corners: 9‑11.
• Both teams have recorded over 7.5 total shots on target in their last three meetings.

Impact on the Ligue 1 Table

A win would cement Lyon’s place in the top two and keep pressure on league leaders Paris Saint‑Germain. For Toulouse, a positive result could halt a spiralling slump and maybe spark a revival that sees them climb out of the lower half before the winter break.

Looking Ahead

If Lyon secure the expected 2‑1 victory, expect them to ride that momentum into their next league fixture against Monaco, where a win could bring them within a point of first place. Toulouse, meanwhile, must regroup quickly – their next challenge is away at Rennes, a match that could either cement their relegation worries or offer a rare chance for redemption.