Knicks vs. Celtics Game 5 Prediction: Odds, Injury Impact, and Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Showdown
Game 5: Celtics Scramble to Survive Without Tatum
The Knicks have put the Boston Celtics on the ropes ahead of Game 5 in the NBA Playoffs, leading the series 3-1 and one victory away from reaching the Eastern Conference Finals. All eyes are on TD Garden tonight, but the mood in Boston is anything but festive. Jayson Tatum—Boston’s heartbeat and top scorer—will watch from the sidelines after a devastating Achilles injury ended his season. That absence has ripped open questions about the Celtics’ identity and ability to regroup.
Oddsmakers still show some faith in the home team, marking the Celtics as 4.5-point favorites despite losing their main star. It feels almost generous. Sure, the home crowd will try to lift their team, but the cold reality is that Boston looks deflated. You can hear it in press conferences and see it in their body language. The Celtics haven’t quite figured out how to fill the Tatum-sized hole in their offensive game. His leadership in tight moments, especially when every basket counts, is sorely missed—and by now, everyone’s noticed.
The stats tell their own story. New York has taken three out of four games in this series, most recently notching a clear-cut 121-113 win in Game 4. Their formula isn’t complicated: balanced scoring, no panic near the finish line, and guys who step up under playoff pressure. It’s hard to overlook the confidence New York carries right now.
Where the Smart Money Is Going
Let’s talk about the odds. The spread sits at Celtics -4.5, the total at 207.5, with Boston marking -200 for the moneyline while New York stands at +165. Series odds have now swung solidly to favor the Knicks, sitting at -525 compared to Boston’s +400. For many bettors, the best bet tonight is New York +4.5. The Celtics just haven’t seemed right since Tatum went down, and critics argue their energy might lag if New York builds an early lead.
Some prop bets also look tempting. Expecting a fast-paced, aggressive matchup, total points over 207.5 makes sense—these teams have shown they can put up big numbers together. Players like Derrick White will have to transform into scoring machines for Boston, so the over on his 18.5 points is on the radar. Flip to the Knicks, and OG Anunoby seems poised for another big night; an over-15.5 line looks well within reach.
The stakes here are massive. If New York wins, they punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals. For the Celtics, it’s all about survival. No Tatum means the rest of the roster must play out of their minds. Boston’s hopes ride on role players taking on the heavy load—White, obviously, but others like Al Horford and Jaylen Brown must also deliver veteran poise and shot-making. Still, the sense among fans and analysts alike is that the Knicks’ depth and late-game composure give them a real edge.
As the teams get ready for tipoff, the spotlight’s firmly on whether the Celtics can dig deep and force a Game 6, or if the Knicks are simply too tough—and too motivated—for Boston to handle without its leader. Tonight could bring the end of the road for the Celtics or light a tiny spark for a dramatic comeback. Either way, basketball fans should expect intensity, emotion, and plenty to talk about after the final whistle.
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